06.06.2023

Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview and Pick

Following an off day, the Orioles find themselves in Milwaukee to continue their road trip. Milwaukee and Baltimore have gone 5-5 over their past ten games, and tonight they will kick off a three-game set. We’ll preview tonight’s opening game before going over which side I’ll be backing in this one.

Game Preview

The Brewers did not have the opportunity to come into tonight’s game following an off day since they needed to finish a divisional series with the Reds in Cincinnati. Milwaukee was able to win the series by taking three out of four, but they lost last night’s getaway game after being shutout 2-0. After scoring five or more runs in the first three games, the Brewers could only register three hits last night to spoil a strong start from Julio Teheran.

Getting the ball tonight for Milwaukee will be right-hander Freddy Peralta to make his 12th start of the season. In 60.3 innings, Peralta has pitched to a 4.62 ERA with 61 strikeouts and 25 walks. The righty went six innings against the Blue Jays with three strikeouts in his last outing, but he ended up with the loss as he allowed three earned runs on six hits.

Peralta will square off with an Orioles lineup that ended their series with the Giants on a high note. Baltimore had eight runs on ten hits in Sunday’s game, putting the game out of reach early by scoring six in the third inning. Four of the Orioles' ten hits went for extra bases, with James McCann leaving the yard and newly signed outfielder Aaron Hicks picking up two hits, including a triple.

Veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson will get the ball for Baltimore tonight as he looks to secure his fourth straight win. Gibson has thrown 71.7 innings across 12 starts and has a 3.89 ERA with 47 strikeouts and 23 walks. The O’s starter allowed seven hits in 5 ⅔ innings in his last outing, but he still managed to keep the Guardians to three runs which gave him the win.

Pick for the Game

The Milwaukee Brewers can currently be found at (-126) on the moneyline, and I’ll be backing them for my play in this one. Baltimore has lost their last four games following a win, and Milwaukee has been solid in interleague play as of late, going 5-1 in their previous six games. This matchup is also a case of one starter being far more comfortable pitching at home while the other has consistently struggled on the road.

In 42.1 innings on the road this season, Kyle Gibson has a 4.25 ERA with an opponent batting average of .278. Not only does his strikeout percentage decrease by 10.4% when pitching on the road, but his expected FIP jumps to 4.94 as opposed to 4.12 at home. On the offensive side, the Orioles are 20th in wRC+ and 21st in OPS against right-handed pitching on the road.

Those numbers set up an ideal matchup for Freddy Peralta, who has performed his best on his home mound. In 32 innings, the right-hander has a 3.38 ERA at home with an opposing batting average of .220. Peralta has a 5.2% increase in strikeout percentage, and his hard-hit percentage decreases by 6.4% when playing at home as well.