05.09.2023

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels Game Preview and Pick

With a chaotic race going on behind them in the AL East, the Baltimore Orioles have remained in control of first place by keeping up their winning ways. After last night’s win, the team is currently on a three-game win streak and has a 7-3 record over their past ten games. A win tonight would also secure them their sixth straight series win, and we’ll preview the game before going over my play on the F5 total.

Game Preview

Since returning to the big league club, Grayson Rodriguez has lived up to the expectations of being one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Last night was the 8th straight start in which the right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs, as he held the Angels to two earned runs across six innings while also picking up seven strikeouts. Offensively, the Orioles tacked on three runs early, but Gunnar Henderson put the game out of reach in the 7th to give Baltimore a 6-3 win.

Getting the ball for the Orioles tonight will be right-hander Dean Kremer, who is set to make his 28th start of the year. Kremer has been solid over his past couple of outings and has allowed just one earned run over his last 12 innings of work. The right-hander took a no-decision in his most recent start, but he would exit the game with a quality start, allowing one earned run in six innings.

Kremer is taking on an Angels team tonight that is on a four-game losing streak, and before yesterday’s loss, they were swept by the Oakland A’s. In last night’s loss, LA had three extra-base hits, including a Micky Moniak RBI double and solo home runs by Randal Grichuk and Brandon Drury. Still, ultimately, the lack of runners in scoring position would result in another trip to the loss column.

As they look to snap their losing streak and even the series with Baltimore, the Angels will have lefty Reid Detmers on the bump. Aside from one stellar outing, Detmers has struggled over his last five starts. In his most recent trip to the mound, the lefty was pulled from the game after four innings after allowing two earned runs on four hits and three walks.

Pick for the Game

The total for the first five innings is currently set at 4.5, and I’ll be taking the over, which is priced at (-105). Los Angeles is 10-3 to the F5 team total over in their last 13 games, while the Orioles are 41-28 in their last 69 away games. Baltimore has been hitting lefties well as of late, while their starter, Dean Kremer, seems to be trending toward a regression based on his expected numbers.

Over the past month, the Orioles are hitting .294 while ranking 8th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against left-handed pitching on the road. These are not the numbers you want to see if you’re Reid Detmers since he is in the 34th percentile in expected batting average, 30th percentile in xERA, and 24th percentile in hard-hit percentage. The lefty is also in the 29th percentile in walk percentage, giving the dangerous Orioles offense more chances with runners in scoring position.

The other man on the mound tonight, Dean Kremer, has been solid over his last two starts, yet he’s in the 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 15th percentile in xERA, and 13th percentile in xBA. Los Angeles doesn’t have ideal numbers at home in the past 30 days, but with Kremer pitching to a 4.26 xFIP on the road, they should have the chance to tack on runs early.