With the All-Star break rapidly approaching, the Atlanta Hawks are sitting one game above .500, and tonight will look to win their third straight game. We’ll preview their game against the Hornets before going over my best prop play for the action.
The Charlotte Hornets are in the midst of one of their longest losing streaks of the season, as they have lost seven straight games. In those seven games, the Hornets have allowed 114 or more points in each of them, and in that span, their -9.6 NET rating is the second worst in the league.
The losing streak can’t be attributed to just one end of the court either, as the Hornets' offensive rating during this losing skid is 106, which ranks 29th in the league. Across the last seven games, no team has had a worse true shooting percentage than the Hornets, and with the trade of Mason Plumlee, their offensive numbers will likely continue to diminish.
Losing Plumlee also affects this team in terms of rebounding, which is almost hard to imagine since the Hornets have allowed the most rebounds per game over their past seven games. On average, opponents are pulling in 50.7 rebounds per game, and their opponent tonight, the Atlanta Hawks, are fresh off a game in which they had 48 rebounds.
Atlanta has won two-straight games, and we’ll be getting a boost to their rotation within the week as they acquired Saddiq Bey at the deadline. Despite the small win streak, the Hawks could still use a jolt on the offensive end of the floor, as even over the past five games, they ranked 21st in the league in offensive efficiency rating.
Atlanta has the biggest advantage tonight on the defensive end, as they ranked 11th in defensive efficiency rating over their last five games and have held their past two opponents to under 30% from three. This ability to limit three-point shooting will likely continue tonight, with the Hornets shooting just 30.1% from three over the last five games.
For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Dejounte Murray over 5.5 rebounds at (-118). Over his last ten games, Murray is averaging 5.8 rebounds per game, and he has gone over his total in seven of those games. During the Hawks’ two-game win streak, Murray has managed to pull in a combined 15 rebounds, and he will now face his second straight opponent that struggles with rebounding.
In the Hawks’ most recent win over the Spurs, Murray came up with seven rebounds in the game, as San Antonio is tied for last in the league in rebounds allowed over the past five games. The team that the Spurs are tied with at the bottom of the league happens to be the Charlotte Hornets. In the Hornets' most recent loss, they allowed 51 rebounds, including 14 offensive rebounds.
Between his recent performance and his opponent tonight, I think this is an excellent spot to target Murray.
Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 Rebounds (-118)