Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets Game Preview and Pick: Miller Shines From Three

It’s safe to say the Charlotte Hornets are planning for the future. Charlotte was one of the more active teams at the trade deadline, and while their moves were to benefit their reconstruction, the acquisitions they made at the deadline helped them snap a ten-game losing streak.

With two straight wins under their belt since the deadline, Charlotte is set to host the Atlanta Hawks tonight. With two below-average defenses going at it, I think Brandon Miller will benefit the most from the Hawks’ lack of perimeter defense.

Game Preview

Entering the week, the Atlanta Hawks had been on a two-game win streak, but in their matchup with the Bulls on Monday night, their defensive issues reared their ugly head again. Atlanta would fall 136-126, which means they are allowing an average of 129.3 points per game over their last ten games, the highest average in the league during that span.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks also rank 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over the past two weeks (123). Atlanta’s entire identity as an offense is running at a fast pace, and while that has led them to a lot of high-scoring nights, it has also allowed opponents to get a ton of open looks.

While their defense remains a significant problem and likely why they will struggle to make a deep run in the postseason, the Hawks have still won six of their last nine games. The wins are primarily due to the fact that Atlanta is 2nd in the league in points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.

Over their last ten games, the Hawks rank 7th in true shooting percentage (60.6%), and on paper, they have an ideal matchup tonight since they are playing a Hornets team that is allowing 118 points per game over their last ten games. Charlotte also ranks 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over the past two weeks.

However, Charlotte has looked better on the defensive end of the floor in the two games since the trade deadline. In their most recent win, the Hornets held the Pacers to 102 points on 27% shooting from beyond the arc.

Pick for the Game

As I stated at the start of this article, the Hornets are building for the future, and arguably, the most significant piece of their rebuild behind LaMelo Ball is Brandon Miller. The second-overall pick out of Alabama has flashed immense potential up to this point, and for my play tonight, I’ll be backing him to make over 2.5 three-pointers, which is the number that can be found across most North Carolina sports betting apps.

Over his last ten games, Miller has averaged 2.9 made threes per game, and in that span, he has exceeded tonight’s total in six of them. Miller had been on an absolute tear before the trade deadline, and while his shooting volume has slowed a bit since Charlotte acquired some new pieces, he still has an ideal matchup tonight.

The rookie is set to play a Hawks defense that is 30th in three-point attempts allowed per game (39.2) and 28th in opponent three-point percentage (40.1%) over their last ten games. Miller is averaging 7.7 three-point attempts per game in that span, and a majority of those attempts are coming from above-the-break threes, which is an area where he is shooting 40.6% over those ten games. In that same span, Atlanta has allowed the 4th highest shooting percentage from that spot on the floor (38.3%).


  • Brandon Miller Over 2.5 Threes (+100) on FanDuel

*odds subject to change

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