The two best teams in the National League will meet tonight in Los Angeles, with the Dodgers set to host the Braves for a four-game series. Heading into this matchup, the Braves are 7-3 in their last ten, and the Dodgers are 8-2, so both sides enter on win streaks and with momentum. We’ll preview the series’ opening game before reviewing which prop market I’ll target.
The Arizona Diamondbacks were on a tear entering this week, but that didn’t bother the Dodgers since they swept Arizona and scored seven or more runs in all three games. In yesterday’s series finale, LA came away with a 7-0 win, in which Freddie Freeman continued his MVP-caliber season with a double, home run, and two RBIs. Los Angeles also got a strong start from Ryan Pepiot, who allowed just two hits across his five innings.
A lot of baseball fans across the country will be tuned into this exciting series, and tonight, they’ll see Lance Lynn take the mound for the Dodgers. Lynn has yet to take a loss in a Dodgers uniform, entering tonight with a 4-0 record in five starts. In his recent outing against the Red Sox, the big right-hander allowed four runs (three earned) on ten hits in six innings. Even after allowing two long balls in the game, Lynn is still pitching to a 2.03 ERA in 31 innings as a member of the Dodgers.
Tonight will hands down be Lynn’s toughest test since being traded, as he takes on a Braves lineup that hasn’t slowed down all season. Atlanta’s recent trip to Coors Field, which saw them sweep the Rockies, went as expected, with the Braves offense scoring 24 runs across the three games. In last night’s 7-3 win, Kevin Pillar, Marcell Ozuna, and Orlando Arica all hit home runs and combined for five of the team’s RBIs.
Atlanta shuffled their rotation against the Rockies to get their ace, Spencer Strider, on the mound for tonight’s game. The strikeout artist dominated the San Francisco Giants over his last two outings, picking up two wins. Across those two stellar performances, Strider threw 14 innings and allowed just one earned run while striking out 19.
Lance Lynn’s strikeout prop is set at 5.5, and I’ll be taking the under for my play, which is currently priced at (+120). Lynn started his Dodgers tenure mowing down hitters and racking up strikeouts, but he has registered just four punchouts over his last two starts and 13 innings. A big reason for this is that his first three outings came against the A’s, Padres, and Rockies, while his last two outings came against the Brewers and Red Sox.
Now he has to face arguably the most explosive offense in the league in the Braves. Not to mention, Atlanta has the lowest strikeout percentage in the league against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month at 17.1%. A starting pitcher has not recorded more than five strikeouts against the Atlanta offense since Kodai Senga did it on August 13th.
Lynn may have been able to dominate the first three opponents he faced as a member of the Dodgers, but his strikeout percentage is still down 6.7% from the first half of the season to the second. It may be difficult to work deep into the game tonight since the Braves have the 3rd highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road, and Los Angeles used just one reliever yesterday, so they have a fresh bullpen to utilize.
Lance Lynn Under 5.5 K’s (+120)