30.08.2023

Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies Game Preview and Prop Pick

Mixing the Atlanta Braves offense and Coors Field has gone pretty much as expected, with the Braves winning the series' first two games. A win tonight will not only give Atlanta a sweep, but it will give them even more momentum heading into their exciting series with the Dodgers. We’ll preview the series finale before going over which prop market I’ll be targeting for my play tonight.

Game Preview

Looking at last night’s final score, one would probably think the Braves offense had a bad night and still came away with a win. While they did win 3-1, it could have gone much worse for the Rockies if Atlanta could capitalize with runners in scoring position. By the end of the game, the Braves had a 15 in the hit column, but the three in the runs column were due to them leaving 25 runners on base. Marcell Ozuna and Sean Murphy were the only players who were able to pick up RBIs in the winning effort.

While Atlanta was stranding runners on base left and right, Charlie Morton was mowing down the Rockies lineup. In six innings of work, the veteran allowed one earned run on three hits while also picking up eight strikeouts.

Getting the ball tonight for Atlanta will be right-hander Darius Vines, who is set to make his MLB debut. The 25-year-old has made five starts in Triple-A this season, and in those 28.1 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.86 ERA.

The first Major League lineup that Vines will face will be a Rockies lineup that only managed three hits last night. One of those three hits was a triple off the bat of Hunter Goodman, who is 5-11 to start his MLB career. Goodman scored on an RBI groundout by Harold Castro last night, which would be the only time Colorado would cross home plate.

On the bump for the Rockies this evening will be lefty Kyle Freeland, who has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last six starts. In his recent outing against Baltimore, the lefty allowed three earned runs in six innings of work for a no-decision. Overall, Freeland is pitching to a 5.00 ERA in 135 innings.

Prop Pick

Kyle Freeland’s outs recorded total is set at 15.5, and I’ll be taking the under, currently priced at (-145). The lefty has gone under this total in five of his last ten outings, with four of those five outings coming at home. Already at a disadvantage since he has to pitch at Coors Field, Freeland has a bad matchup tonight with the juggernaut Braves offense that has recorded 33 hits through the first two games of this series.

In 168 plate appearances over the last month, the Braves offense is hitting .324 and ranks 4th in wRC+, 3rd in wOBA, and 2nd in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching on the road. On top of that, the Braves are also 5th in hard-hit percentage in this split, so Freeland being in the 18th percentile in hard-hit percentage does not bode well for him.

Not only does the Rockies lefty struggle with hard contact, but he is also in the 6th percentile in expected batting average, 4th percentile in expected batting average, and 2nd percentile in whiff percentage. Freeland is a high flyball pitcher in the wrong ballpark, and with the Rockies having five relievers with at least one day of rest, I think Freeland makes it a maximum of five innings tonight.