21.06.2023

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview and Pick

With a series win on the line, the Diamondbacks and Brewers will play this afternoon in the rubber game of their series. Both sides are looking to pick up back-to-back series wins, and we’ll preview the game before going over which side I’ll be backing in this one.

Game Preview

The Diamondbacks jumped out to an early 4-1 lead in last night’s game, making that the second game this series they opened the scoring in the first inning. With both teams exchanging runs up until the sixth, they went into the final three innings, and it was 5-3 Arizona. However, the game changed in the bottom of the seventh as Milwaukee got to the Arizona bullpen for three runs and took the lead on a William Contreras RBI double.

Milwaukee has had two straight starting pitchers stumble out of the gate so far in this series, so it will be up to veteran Julio Teheran to help the offense not be put in a hole within the first three innings. Teheran has done an excellent job taking advantage of another opportunity in the big leagues as he has made five starts, and in those 30.3 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.78 ERA with 20 strikeouts and four walks.

The veteran right-hander will take on a Diamondbacks lineup that, despite the loss, still recorded ten hits last night. Arizona got a big night at the dish from Ketel Marte, who went 3-5 with a three-run home run, while young phenom Corbin Carroll picked up his 39th RBI of the year with an early single.

Getting the ball for Arizona this afternoon will be their ace Zac Gallen, who comes into this start fresh off his eighth win of the season. After a rough start against Detroit on June 11th, the D-Backs ace responded by throwing seven innings with seven punchouts and one earned run allowed in his last start. That outing brought Gallen’s ERA down to 2.96 in 91.3 innings of work.

Pick for the Game

As nice as it's been to watch the Julio Teheran redemption tour, I think he may hit a bump in the road this afternoon, so for my play in this one, I’ll be taking the Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline at (-145). The D-Backs have been crushing right-handed pitching on the road as of late, and with their ace on the mound, it’s hard to pass on Arizona in this spot.

Over the last month, the Diamondbacks rank second in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road. That’s a tough lineup for Teheran to face after pitching against the A’s and Pirates in his last two outings. The Brewers starter has an expected FIP of 4.04 at home and 4.61 the first time through the order, so this Diamondbacks team hitting .286 in this spot could be the first team to make his numbers regress a bit.

While one side has been great hitting on the road, the Brewers have struggled against right-handed pitching at home over the last month, ranking 29th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They’ll face a starter in Zac Gallen, in the 75th percentile in strikeout percentage and 59th percentile in xERA/xwOBA. Milwaukee has also gone 1-7 in their last eight games against an opposing pitcher with a sub-1.15 WHIP.