30.06.2023

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Angels Game Preview and Pick: YRFI or NRFI?

After losing their series to the Rays yesterday, the Diamondbacks immediately boarded a plane to Los Angeles, where they have a three-game set with the Angels this weekend. With both teams coming off back-to-back losses, we’ll preview tonight’s game before going over which side of the run first-inning market I’ll be targeting.

Game Preview

If there were a TV game show titled “How Inconsistent Can We Be?” the LA Angels would likely win easily. Between scoring 25 runs and still losing a series to the Rockies to winning the first two games of their series with the White Sox and ending it with a split, it’s been a true up-and-down week for the Halos. The offense scored a total of 12 runs and hit six home runs over the past two games, and yet they lost both.

Reid Detmers and Shohei Ohtani started the series with phenomenal starts, but Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval could not keep that momentum going. It will be up to Griffin Canning to get his team back in the win column as he takes the mound for his 13th start of the season. Following his six-shutout inning performance in his last outing, the right-hander is now pitching to a 3.99 ERA across 65.3 innings.

The Diamondbacks team that Canning will face tonight had the opposite offensive output to the Angels over their last two games. Arizona was able to take game one of their series with the Rays while scoring eight runs, but they would go on to score a combined three runs the rest of the series. Arizona recorded eight hits in yesterday’s 6-1 loss, including a Lourdes Guerriel Jr. home run, but they would leave 19 runners on base.

Young left-hander Tommy Henry will get the ball for Arizona tonight as he looks to build on his strong performance against the Nationals his last time out. Henry’s 6 ⅔ innings of one-run ball gave him two straight quality starts and helped lower his ERA down to 4.31 in 62.7 innings of work.

Pick for the Game

For my play in this one, I’ll be targeting the run-first-inning market and take the YRFI, which is priced at (-127). Over the Diamondbacks' last ten games, the YRFI is 8-2, and both pitchers on the mound tonight have struggled at times this season to get out of the first inning unscathed.

Not only does Tommy Henry have a 5.40-road ERA, but he also has a first-inning ERA of 5.73. In the 11 first innings Henry has had this season, he has allowed nine hits and walked seven batters, which can help explain why he has a 5.93 FIP the first time through the order. He’ll face an Angels lineup that is 12th in OPS and 15th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching at home over the past month and has a YRFI record of 5-5 over their last ten games.

Conversely, Griffin Canning has a 5.25 first-inning ERA through 12 innings, to go along with a 4.56 home ERA. Canning and his 4.24 xFIP, the first time through the order, will take on a Diamondbacks lineup that is 3rd in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against right-handed pitching on the road in the month of June.