20.02.2023

Anaheim Ducks @ Florida Panthers Game Preview and Prop Pick

It’s Presidents Day, and with that comes afternoon hockey. Of the six NHL games scheduled for today, two will take place at 1:00 PM EST, and one will feature the Anaheim Ducks in Florida taking on the Panthers. We’ll preview the game before going over my best prop play for the action.

Game Preview

With their loss to the Kings on Friday night, the Ducks are now 1-5 since the All-Star break and have allowed six or more goals in their past four games. No team in the NHL has allowed more goals and shots per game this season, but this recent four-game stretch is arguably their worst of the season in those categories.

Anaheim has allowed a total of 26 goals to be scored across the past four games, and in their most recent loss to the Kings, they allowed 41 shots on goal, which is nine shots higher than the Kings' average this season. Starting goalie John Gibson has allowed 18 goals in his last three starts and has not picked up a win since the break.

Offensively the Ducks have had a similar output at the start of the second half as they did in the first half. In the six games since their return, they are averaging 2.6 goals per game, which has their season average at 2.5 per game and ranked 31st in the league.

Florida is 4-3 since their return, but in those three losses, they have allowed a combined 18 goals to be scored. They have allowed a combined six goals to be scored in their four wins, so it has been a nightly guessing game of which defense will come out. In their most recent game to the Nashville Predators, they lost 7-3, despite coming into the game at (-146) on the moneyline.

Despite the inconsistencies, this afternoon is a perfect opportunity for them to get back in the win column, especially since they rank 1st in shots per game this season and now take on the team that ranks 32nd in shots and goals allowed per game.

Prop Pick for the Game

For my prop play in this one, I’ll be targeting Aleksander Barkov over 3.5 shots on goal at (+102). Over his last ten games, Barkov is averaging 3.2 shots per game, and he has gone over his total in eight of those games. In the Panthers’ previous two games, Barkov has attempted four shots in each and now faces an ideal matchup for this prop since the second half began.

In the last three games that projected Ducks goalie John Gibson has been in net, opponents have gotten 59,39, and 40 shots off against Anaheim, while no team has been more consistent about getting more shots on goal off than the Florida Panthers. In the one matchup these teams had earlier in the season, the Panthers ended the game with 48 shots on goal, with Barkov having four of those himself.

Teams have been coming out incredibly aggressive against Anaheim, and this afternoon should be no different. Barkov has been getting consistent shots per game, so with the Ducks' defense, this prop has excellent value at plus money.