20.03.2023

2023 MLB Win Total Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks

We are just ten short days away from the 2023 MLB season, and there is no better way to prepare for it than going over some season win total bets. Today we’ll look at the Arizona Diamondbacks as we’ll review their roster outlook for the season before going over which side of their total I’ll be betting.

Team Preview

If a new expansion team joined the MLB and were given the choice of picking their own division, the NL West would likely not be chosen. Unfortunately, the Arizona Diamondbacks have no choice and will need to figure out how to compete with the Dodgers and Padres. The D-Backs finished last season in fourth place in the division with a 74-88 record, but as the season went on and more young players were called up, we got a glimpse into the bright future this organization could have.

Arizona made some moves in the off-season that were likely overshadowed a bit due to the rest of the MLB off-season chaos. Regardless of all that, Arizona will enter this season without Daulton Varsho, who finished second on the team in home runs and RBIs last season, as they sent him to Toronto in exchange for young catching phenom Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. They also added Kyle Lewis in the outfield and Evan Longoria for infield depth.

The Diamondbacks' lineup this season will be centered around Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, and Christian Walker. Fangraphs projects Walker and Marte to carry the team in homerun production, while Carroll and McCarthy will provide the speed on the base paths. Other notable names expected to be in the opening-day lineup include Josh Rojas, Alek Thomas, and Carson Kelly.

Regarding the pitching staff, the Diamondbacks bolster one of the favorites to win the CY Young in Zac Gallen, along with some veteran arms like Madison Bumgarner, who may be in danger of losing innings to Arizona’s young pitching depth. Aside from those two, Fangraphs projects the rest of the rotation to feature Merril Kelly, Zach Davies, and Ryne Nelson.

Win Total Pick

The Diamondbacks' current win total can be found at 75.5, and I’ll be taking the over on that number for them. It’s hard not to get excited about the youth movement in Arizona, and the idea of getting an entire season of Corbin Carroll makes me think they can win two more games than last season, even in the tough division.

Arizona might benefit mightily from the new rule changes, as they have three players that are projected to have over 15 stolen bases this season. I’m also willing to bet on guys like Kyle Lewis finding his form again and Gabriel Moreno living up to the hype around being one of the top prospects.

I like Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as a 1-2 in the rotation, and as much as I’m not a fan of Bumgarner and Davies getting a lot of innings, I think young guys will replace them as the season moves forward. Pitchers like Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry, and Brandon Pfaadt give me hope for this pitching staff as the season develops.

Additionally, I think Andrew Chafin and Joe Manitply add at least some insurance in the bullpen, and again we aren’t betting on this team to jump the Padres; we just need them to win an additional two games.