2023 MLB Player Futures to Target

Major League Baseball regular season games start this week, and one of the best ways to kill time until first pitch in a few days is to break down the best player futures bets to target for this season. There are plenty of markets to explore when it comes to player futures, and we’re here to highlight some bets you should be considering over the next few days.

Player Home Run and RBI Totals

Trea Turner Over 23.5 Home Runs (-105) on DK: Turner hit 21 home runs last season and will head to another ballpark with a Park Factor that favors the hitter in terms of home runs. The shortstop also had the highest fly ball rate of his career last season at 26.2%, and based on what we saw in the WBC, he is elevating the ball at an elite level.

Salvador Perez Under 28.5 Home Runs (-125) on DK: After a career year in terms of power in 2021, the Royals catcher had just 23 home runs last season, and for the first time since 2016, his HR% fell below 5% for the season. The power is still there, but I think 29 or more home runs is a big task for someone who has only gone over 27 once in his career and plays in a ballpark that is a top-five pitcher's park in terms of Park Factor for right-handed hitters.

Adolis Garcia Over 86.5 RBIs (-105) on DK: After bursting onto the scene in 2021 with 90 RBIs, Garcia came back in 2022 with 101 while showing improvement in multiple advanced hitting metrics. The Rangers outfielder had a .309 BAbip last season, which was 19 points above the league average, and he has shown better patience at the plate in Spring Training, which both bode well for putting the ball in play and driving in runs.

Anthony Santander Under 89.5 RBIs (-125) on DK: Santander was very impressive last season on a promising young Orioles team, as he finished the year with 89 RBIs and 33 home runs. Even with those numbers, though, he was well below league average in BAbip and is projected on Baseball Reference to finish this season with just 73 RBIs.

Pitcher Futures Props

Spencer Strider Over 12.5 Wins (-115) on DK: The young strikeout master picked up 11 wins in just 20 starts last season. This will be Strider’s first time starting the season as a starter, as his first 11 appearances last year came out of the bullpen, and I think those extra starts get into the 13-win range. Last season he was better than the league average in SO%, HR%, opponent batting average, and hard-hit rate, so a full season of starts would suggest an increase in wins as well.

Kevin Gausman Over 190.5 Strikeouts (-113) on FanDuel: For the past two seasons, Gausman has recorded over 200 strikeouts, and now with the MLB rule changes, he won’t have to face the gauntlet of hitters that come with the AL East division as often. We’ve seen the dominance already in Spring Training with his 11.9 SO9, so I expect him to hit the ground running this season.

Sandy Alcantara to Record 200+ Strikeouts (+120) on FanDuel: The Marlins ace has gone over the 200 strikeout mark the last two seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down, which is part of the reason why he led the league in innings last year. With his 23.4% strikeout percentage from last season and willingness to eat absurd amounts of innings, I’m more than happy to take him at plus money.